Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3 (MH3) Day 1 win rates have been released, revealing surprising results for several archetypes. The data, provided by Play MTG, shows distinct trends and unexpected performances from some of the decks in the Modern meta.

Top Performing Decks

Mono-Black Grief - 59.3%

Bant Nadu - 58.4%

Boros Energy - 55.6%

Four-Color Nadu - 55.6%

Underperforming Decks

Ruby Storm - Despite being the second most popular deck at the event, it ended up with the lowest win rate, highlighting the unpredictable nature of the Modern metagame.

Analysis

The Impact of the Meta

The presence of a heavily Nadu-influenced meta appears to have significantly impacted the performance of various decks. Mono-Black Grief and Bant Nadu leading the win rates suggest that these decks were well-positioned against the field.

It's uncommon for the second most popular deck to underperform so drastically. The last notable instance was during Pro Tour Rivals of Ixalan, where Mardu Vehicles, despite being highly played, had a relatively poor performance due to the rise of other aggressive strategies.

Most Played Cards

Based on the fully published decklists, the most played cards at Pro Tour MH3 include:

• The One Ring: Dominating across formats, it has become a staple card.
• Phlage, Titan of Fire’s Fury: More copies were played than the popular Nadu, Winged Wisdom, making it a crucial removal tool and one of the most expensive cards in Modern Horizons 3.

Possible Bans and Metagame Shifts

Given the dominance of Nadu, the extensive use of The One Ring, and the reliance on Phlage, there is speculation about potential bans. While The One Ring wasn't mentioned in the recent June 24 B&R update, concerns around Nadu were noted, indicating possible future changes.

For more details, you can view the full breakdown on Play MTG's official account and watch the latest B&R discussion.

Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3 showcased the dynamic nature of the Modern format, with unexpected deck performances and heavy influence from the latest sets. As the meta evolves, players and organizers will closely monitor key cards and archetypes for future adjustments.

Watch MTG’s most recent B&R discussion from June 24 below: